Weekly closes Fri 2 Oct vs Fri 25 Sep · Published Sat 3 Oct
AI shares edged up this week, and a stronger dollar nearly tripled the gain for Swedish investors. Our basket of 24 AI-exposed companies rose 0.7% in dollars and 1.9% in kronor. Chips led; neoclouds and power-equipment makers lagged. The open question is whether earnings can justify the higher prices when companies report later this month.
Scoreboard
GroupWeek4 weeks
ChipsDesign and make AI chips · Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, TSMC, Micron
+1.9%
+9.9%
Software & AI applicationsSell software or products that use AI · Palantir, ServiceNow, CrowdStrike, Datadog, Meta
+1.2%
+15.7%
Cloud giantsRent out computing at scale · Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Oracle
+1.2%
−2.0%
Power & data-centre equipmentBuild and power the facilities · Vertiv, Constellation Energy, Powell, Eaton, GE Vernova
+0.4%
−0.9%
NeocloudsAI computing and data centres for rent · CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN, Applied Digital, TeraWulf
−1.1%
−1.8%
Basket +0.68% this week (+4.4% over four weeks). For comparison: Nasdaq-100 +0.7%, semiconductor ETF +4.0%. Bars on one scale from −2% to +3%. Neoclouds were split: CoreWeave and Nebius rose 2.3% while IREN, Applied Digital and TeraWulf fell 1.6–5.4%, with no single catalyst found. In power equipment, GE Vernova and Powell gained while Constellation Energy fell 3.3%.
Two developments
Software & AI applications · +1.2%
Investors worried less that AI will eat software and services
What happened
Accenture reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $18.7B, above its own guidance, record bookings, and a forecast of 3–6% growth next year (TIKR). Its shares jumped about 21% on Thursday and other IT services firms rose with it (TheStreet). In our basket, CrowdStrike gained 7.1% and Datadog 3.4%, while Meta fell 3.1%.
Why it matters
The fear hanging over these companies is that AI automates the work they sell. A large services firm reporting growing demand pushes back on that story.
What it doesn’t yet prove
Accenture’s bookings cover all its work, not just AI. It said more than 400 clients started advanced AI projects this year (Mitrade), but gave no AI revenue figure. Coverage also noted clients negotiating lower prices to share in the efficiency AI delivers (ResultSense).
Chips · +1.9%
Money for the AI build-out is still being committed
What happened
TSMC rose 4.9% and Nvidia 4.0%, with Nvidia touching a record high on Friday (TheStreet). Synopsys, which makes chip-design software and is not in our basket, rose about 12% on Thursday after announcing an AWS agreement worth more than $1B, an OpenAI partnership, and a 2027 revenue forecast of $11.1–11.2B, above the roughly $10.8B analysts expected (The Star).
Why it matters
Spending on designing and manufacturing AI chips is still growing, which supports the companies at the base of the stack.
What it doesn’t yet prove
Agreements and forecasts are commitments, not profits. Synopsys’ jump came from its stronger outlook as much as from the deals. The first hard number arrives on Thursday with TSMC’s September sales.
What it meant in kronor
10,000 SEK invested in this basket a week ago would have gained about 192 SEK, before fees and taxes. About 68 SEK came from the shares’ dollar performance; the rest came from the dollar strengthening 1.2% against the krona (9.92 → 10.04, exchange-rates.org).
Over four weeks the same 10,000 SEK would be up about 953 SEK, and more than half of that came from currency. That part reverses if the krona recovers.
Two things to watch
Wed 7 Oct20:00 StockholmFederal Reserve minutes. The US 10-year yield reached 5.33% last Thursday, its highest since 2002 (TheStreet). Signs of further rate rises would weigh most on companies that borrow heavily to build data centres.
Thu 8 OctTaiwan timeTSMC September sales. The first hard number on whether AI chip demand held up in the third quarter, a week before TSMC’s full results on 15 Oct.